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A statistical hypothesis test is a method of statistical inference used to decide whether the data provide sufficient evidence to reject a particular hypothesis. A statistical hypothesis test typically involves a calculation of a test statistic. Then a decision is made, either by comparing the test statistic to a critical value or equivalently by evaluating a p-value computed from the test statistic. Roughly 100 specialized statistical tests are in use and noteworthy.
1778: Pierre Laplace compares the birthrates of boys and girls in multiple European cities. He states: "it is natural to conclude that these possibilities are very nearly in the same ratio". Thus, the null hypothesis in this case that the birthrates of boys and girls should be equal given "conventional wisdom".
1900: Karl Pearson develops the chi squared test to determine "whether a given form of frequency curve will effectively describe the samples drawn from a given population." Thus the null hypothesis is that a population is described by some distribution predicted by theory. He uses as an example the numbers of five and sixes in the Weldon dice throw data.
1904: Karl Pearson develops the concept of "contingency" in order to determine whether outcomes are independent of a given categorical factor. Here the null hypothesis is by default that two things are unrelated (e.g. scar formation and death rates from smallpox). The null hypothesis in this case is no longer predicted by theory or conventional wisdom, but is instead the principle of indifference that led Ronald Fisher and others to dismiss the use of "inverse probabilities".
Fisher emphasized rigorous experimental design and methods to extract a result from few samples assuming Gaussian distributions. Neyman (who teamed with the younger Pearson) emphasized mathematical rigor and methods to obtain more results from many samples and a wider range of distributions. Modern hypothesis testing is an inconsistent hybrid of the Fisher vs Neyman/Pearson formulation, methods and terminology developed in the early 20th century.
Fisher popularized the "significance test". He required a null-hypothesis (corresponding to a population frequency distribution) and a sample. His (now familiar) calculations determined whether to reject the null-hypothesis or not. Significance testing did not utilize an alternative hypothesis so there was no concept of a Type II error (false negative).
The p-value was devised as an informal, but objective, index meant to help a researcher determine (based on other knowledge) whether to modify future experiments or strengthen one's faith in the null hypothesis. Hypothesis testing (and Type I/II errors) was devised by Neyman and Pearson as a more objective alternative to Fisher's p-value, also meant to determine researcher behaviour, but without requiring any inductive inference by the researcher.
Neyman & Pearson considered a different problem to Fisher (which they called "hypothesis testing"). They initially considered two simple hypotheses (both with frequency distributions). They calculated two probabilities and typically selected the hypothesis associated with the higher probability (the hypothesis more likely to have generated the sample). Their method always selected a hypothesis. It also allowed the calculation of both types of error probabilities.
Fisher and Neyman/Pearson clashed bitterly. Neyman/Pearson considered their formulation to be an improved generalization of significance testing (the defining paper was abstract; Mathematicians have generalized and refined the theory for decades). Fisher thought that it was not applicable to scientific research because often, during the course of the experiment, it is discovered that the initial assumptions about the null hypothesis are questionable due to unexpected sources of error. He believed that the use of rigid reject/accept decisions based on models formulated before data is collected was incompatible with this common scenario faced by scientists and attempts to apply this method to scientific research would lead to mass confusion.
The dispute between Fisher and Neyman–Pearson was waged on philosophical grounds, characterized by a philosopher as a dispute over the proper role of models in statistical inference.
Events intervened: Neyman accepted a position in the University of California, Berkeley in 1938, breaking his partnership with Pearson and separating the disputants (who had occupied the same building). World War II provided an intermission in the debate. The dispute between Fisher and Neyman terminated (unresolved after 27 years) with Fisher's death in 1962. Neyman wrote a well-regarded eulogy. Some of Neyman's later publications reported p-values and significance levels.
This fusion resulted from confusion by writers of statistical textbooks (as predicted by Fisher) beginning in the 1940s (but Detection theory, for example, still uses the Neyman/Pearson formulation). Great conceptual differences and many caveats in addition to those mentioned above were ignored. Neyman and Pearson provided the stronger terminology, the more rigorous mathematics and the more consistent philosophy, but the subject taught today in introductory statistics has more similarities with Fisher's method than theirs.
Sometime around 1940, authors of statistical text books began combining the two approaches by using the p-value in place of the test statistic (or data) to test against the Neyman–Pearson "significance level".
| + A comparison between Fisherian, frequentist (Neyman–Pearson) | ||
| 1 | Set up a statistical null hypothesis. The null need not be a nil hypothesis (i.e., zero difference). | Set up two statistical hypotheses, H1 and H2, and decide about α, β, and sample size before the experiment, based on subjective cost-benefit considerations. These define a rejection region for each hypothesis. |
| 2 | Report the exact level of significance (e.g. p = 0.051 or p = 0.049). Do not refer to "accepting" or "rejecting" hypotheses. If the result is "not significant", draw no conclusions and make no decisions, but suspend judgement until further data is available. | If the data falls into the rejection region of H1, accept H2; otherwise accept H1. Accepting a hypothesis does not mean that you believe in it, but only that you act as if it were true. |
| 3 | Use this procedure only if little is known about the problem at hand, and only to draw provisional conclusions in the context of an attempt to understand the experimental situation. | The usefulness of the procedure is limited among others to situations where you have a disjunction of hypotheses (e.g. either μ1 = 8 or μ2 = 10 is true) and where you can make meaningful cost-benefit trade-offs for choosing alpha and beta. |
Fisher and Neyman opposed the subjectivity of probability. Their views contributed to the objective definitions. The core of their historical disagreement was philosophical.
Many of the philosophical criticisms of hypothesis testing are discussed by statisticians in other contexts, particularly correlation does not imply causation and the design of experiments. Hypothesis testing is of continuing interest to philosophers.
An academic study states that the cookbook method of teaching introductory statistics leaves no time for history, philosophy or controversy. Hypothesis testing has been taught as received unified method. Surveys showed that graduates of the class were filled with philosophical misconceptions (on all aspects of statistical inference) that persisted among instructors. While the problem was addressed more than a decade ago, and calls for educational reform continue, students still graduate from statistics classes holding fundamental misconceptions about hypothesis testing. Ideas for improving the teaching of hypothesis testing include encouraging students to search for statistical errors in published papers, teaching the history of statistics and emphasizing the controversy in a generally dry subject.
Raymond S. Nickerson commented:
Not rejecting the null hypothesis does not mean the null hypothesis is "accepted" per se (though Neyman and Pearson used that word in their original writings; see the Interpretation section).
The processes described here are perfectly adequate for computation. They seriously neglect the design of experiments considerations. (2025). 9780470385517, Wiley. ISBN 9780470385517
It is particularly critical that appropriate sample sizes be estimated before conducting the experiment.
The phrase "test of significance" was coined by statistician Ronald Fisher.R. A. Fisher (1925). Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd, 1925, p.43.
The p-value is the probability that a test statistic which is at least as extreme as the one obtained would occur under the null hypothesis. At a significance level of 0.05, a fair coin would be expected to (incorrectly) reject the null hypothesis (that it is fair) in 1 out of 20 tests on average. The p-value does not provide the probability that either the null hypothesis or its opposite is correct (a common source of confusion).
If the p-value is less than the chosen significance threshold (equivalently, if the observed test statistic is in the critical region), then we say the null hypothesis is rejected at the chosen level of significance. If the p-value is not less than the chosen significance threshold (equivalently, if the observed test statistic is outside the critical region), then the null hypothesis is not rejected at the chosen level of significance.
In the "lady tasting tea" example (below), Fisher required the lady to properly categorize all of the cups of tea to justify the conclusion that the result was unlikely to result from chance. His test revealed that if the lady was effectively guessing at random (the null hypothesis), there was a 1.4% chance that the observed results (perfectly ordered tea) would occur.
Real world applications of hypothesis testing include: (1976). 9780023677205, Macmillan. ISBN 9780023677205
Statistical hypothesis testing plays an important role in the whole of statistics and in statistical inference. For example, Lehmann (1992) in a review of the fundamental paper by Neyman and Pearson (1933) says: "Nevertheless, despite their shortcomings, the new paradigm formulated in the 1933 paper, and the many developments carried out within its framework continue to play a central role in both the theory and practice of statistics and can be expected to do so in the foreseeable future".
Significance testing has been the favored statistical tool in some experimental social sciences (over 90% of articles in the Journal of Applied Psychology during the early 1990s). Other fields have favored the estimation of parameters (e.g. effect size). Significance testing is used as a substitute for the traditional comparison of predicted value and experimental result at the core of the scientific method. When theory is only capable of predicting the sign of a relationship, a directional (one-sided) hypothesis test can be configured so that only a statistically significant result supports theory. This form of theory appraisal is the most heavily criticized application of hypothesis testing.
The successful hypothesis test is associated with a probability and a type-I error rate. The conclusion might be wrong.
The conclusion of the test is only as solid as the sample upon which it is based. The design of the experiment is critical. A number of unexpected effects have been observed including:
Publication bias: Statistically nonsignificant results may be less likely to be published, which can bias the literature.
Multiple testing: When multiple true null hypothesis tests are conducted at once without adjustment, the overall probability of Type I error is higher than the nominal alpha level.
Those making critical decisions based on the results of a hypothesis test are prudent to look at the details rather than the conclusion alone. In the physical sciences most results are fully accepted only when independently confirmed. The general advice concerning statistics is, "Figures never lie, but liars figure" (anonymous).
A statistical hypothesis test compares a test statistic ( z or t for examples) to a threshold. The test statistic (the formula found in the table below) is based on optimality. For a fixed level of Type I error rate, use of these statistics minimizes Type II error rates (equivalent to maximizing power). The following terms describe tests in terms of such optimality:
Arbuthnot examined birth records in London for each of the 82 years from 1629 to 1710, and applied the sign test, a simple non-parametric test. In every year, the number of males born in London exceeded the number of females. Considering more male or more female births as equally likely, the probability of the observed outcome is 0.582, or about 1 in 4,836,000,000,000,000,000,000,000; in modern terms, this is the p-value. Arbuthnot concluded that this is too small to be due to chance and must instead be due to divine providence: "From whence it follows, that it is Art, not Chance, that governs." In modern terms, he rejected the null hypothesis of equally likely male and female births at the p = 1/282 significance level.
Laplace considered the statistics of almost half a million births. The statistics showed an excess of boys compared to girls. Reprinted in English translation:
He concluded by calculation of a p-value that the excess was a real, but unexplained, effect.Stephen M. Stigler (1986). 9780674403406, Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. . ISBN 9780674403406
In the start of the procedure, there are two hypotheses : "the defendant is not guilty", and : "the defendant is guilty". The first one, , is called the null hypothesis. The second one, , is called the alternative hypothesis. It is the alternative hypothesis that one hopes to support.
The hypothesis of innocence is rejected only when an error is very unlikely, because one does not want to convict an innocent defendant. Such an error is called error of the first kind (i.e., the conviction of an innocent person), and the occurrence of this error is controlled to be rare. As a consequence of this asymmetric behaviour, an error of the second kind (acquitting a person who committed the crime), is more common.
| ! H0 is true Truly not guilty ! H1 is true Truly guilty |
A criminal trial can be regarded as either or both of two decision processes: guilty vs not guilty or evidence vs a threshold ("beyond a reasonable doubt"). In one view, the defendant is judged; in the other view the performance of the prosecution (which bears the burden of proof) is judged. A hypothesis test can be regarded as either a judgment of a hypothesis or as a judgment of evidence.
As we try to find evidence of their clairvoyance, for the time being the null hypothesis is that the person is not clairvoyant. (2025). 9780521592710, Cambridge Univ. Press. ISBN 9780521592710 The alternative is: the person is (more or less) clairvoyant.
If the null hypothesis is valid, the only thing the test person can do is guess. For every card, the probability (relative frequency) of any single suit appearing is 1/4. If the alternative is valid, the test subject will predict the suit correctly with probability greater than 1/4. We will call the probability of guessing correctly p. The hypotheses, then, are:
When the test subject correctly predicts all 25 cards, we will consider them clairvoyant, and reject the null hypothesis. Thus also with 24 or 23 hits. With only 5 or 6 hits, on the other hand, there is no cause to consider them so. But what about 12 hits, or 17 hits? What is the critical number, c, of hits, at which point we consider the subject to be clairvoyant? How do we determine the critical value c? With the choice c=25 (i.e. we only accept clairvoyance when all cards are predicted correctly) we're more critical than with c=10. In the first case almost no test subjects will be recognized to be clairvoyant, in the second case, a certain number will pass the test. In practice, one decides how critical one will be. That is, one decides how often one accepts an error of the first kind – a false positive, or Type I error. With c = 25 the probability of such an error is:
and hence, very small. The probability of a false positive is the probability of randomly guessing correctly all 25 times.
Being less critical, with c = 10, gives:
Thus, c = 10 yields a much greater probability of false positive.
Before the test is actually performed, the maximum acceptable probability of a Type I error ( α) is determined. Typically, values in the range of 1% to 5% are selected. (If the maximum acceptable error rate is zero, an infinite number of correct guesses is required.) Depending on this Type 1 error rate, the critical value c is calculated. For example, if we select an error rate of 1%, c is calculated thus:
From all the numbers c, with this property, we choose the smallest, in order to minimize the probability of a Type II error, a false negative. For the above example, we select: .
One naïve Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing is to base decisions on the posterior probability,Schervish, M (1996) Theory of Statistics, p. 218. Springer (2025). 9780309214216, West National Academies Press. ISBN 9780309214216 but this fails when comparing point and continuous hypotheses. Other approaches to decision making, such as Bayesian decision theory, attempt to balance the consequences of incorrect decisions across all possibilities, rather than concentrating on a single null hypothesis. A number of other approaches to reaching a decision based on data are available via decision theory and , some of which have desirable properties. Hypothesis testing, though, is a dominant approach to data analysis in many fields of science. Extensions to the theory of hypothesis testing include the study of the power of tests, i.e. the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis given that it is false. Such considerations can be used for the purpose of sample size determination prior to the collection of data.
Neyman–Pearson theory can accommodate both prior probabilities and the costs of actions resulting from decisions.Section 8.2 The former allows each test to consider the results of earlier tests (unlike Fisher's significance tests). The latter allows the consideration of economic issues (for example) as well as probabilities. A likelihood ratio remains a good criterion for selecting among hypotheses.
The two forms of hypothesis testing are based on different problem formulations. The original test is analogous to a true/false question; the Neyman–Pearson test is more like multiple choice. In the view of John Tukey the former produces a conclusion on the basis of only strong evidence while the latter produces a decision on the basis of available evidence. While the two tests seem quite different both mathematically and philosophically, later developments lead to the opposite claim. Consider many tiny radioactive sources. The hypotheses become 0,1,2,3... grains of radioactive sand. There is little distinction between none or some radiation (Fisher) and 0 grains of radioactive sand versus all of the alternatives (Neyman–Pearson). The major Neyman–Pearson paper of 1933 also considered composite hypotheses (ones whose distribution includes an unknown parameter). An example proved the optimality of the (Student's) t-test, "there can be no better test for the hypothesis under consideration" (p 321). Neyman–Pearson theory was proving the optimality of Fisherian methods from its inception.
Fisher's significance testing has proven a popular flexible statistical tool in application with little mathematical growth potential. Neyman–Pearson hypothesis testing is claimed as a pillar of mathematical statistics, creating a new paradigm for the field. It also stimulated new applications in statistical process control, detection theory, decision theory and game theory. Both formulations have been successful, but the successes have been of a different character.
The dispute over formulations is unresolved. Science primarily uses Fisher's (slightly modified) formulation as taught in introductory statistics. Statisticians study Neyman–Pearson theory in graduate school. Mathematicians are proud of uniting the formulations. Philosophers consider them separately. Learned opinions deem the formulations variously competitive (Fisher vs Neyman), incompatible or complementary. The dispute has become more complex since Bayesian inference has achieved respectability.
The terminology is inconsistent. Hypothesis testing can mean any mixture of two formulations that both changed with time. Any discussion of significance testing vs hypothesis testing is doubly vulnerable to confusion.
Fisher thought that hypothesis testing was a useful strategy for performing industrial quality control, however, he strongly disagreed that hypothesis testing could be useful for scientists.
Hypothesis testing provides a means of finding test statistics used in significance testing. The concept of power is useful in explaining the consequences of adjusting the significance level and is heavily used in sample size determination. The two methods remain philosophically distinct. They usually (but not always) produce the same mathematical answer. The preferred answer is context dependent. While the existing merger of Fisher and Neyman–Pearson theories has been heavily criticized, modifying the merger to achieve Bayesian goals has been considered.
Criticism
Much of the criticisms of statistical hypothesis testing can be summarized by the following issues:
If the decisions are based on convention they are termed arbitrary or mindless while those not so based may be termed subjective. To minimize type II errors, large samples are recommended. In psychology practically all null hypotheses are claimed to be false for sufficiently large samples so "...it is usually nonsensical to perform an experiment with the sole aim of rejecting the null hypothesis." "Statistically significant findings are often misleading" in psychology. Statistical significance does not imply practical significance, and correlation does not imply causation. Casting doubt on the null hypothesis is thus far from directly supporting the research hypothesis.
Critics and supporters are largely in factual agreement regarding the characteristics of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST): While it can provide critical information, it is inadequate as the sole tool for statistical analysis. Successfully rejecting the null hypothesis may offer no support for the research hypothesis. The continuing controversy concerns the selection of the best statistical practices for the near-term future given the existing practices. However, adequate research design can minimize this issue. Critics would prefer to ban NHST completely, forcing a complete departure from those practices, while supporters suggest a less absolute change.
Controversy over significance testing, and its effects on publication bias in particular, has produced several results. The American Psychological Association has strengthened its statistical reporting requirements after review, "Hypothesis tests. It is hard to imagine a situation in which a dichotomous accept-reject decision is better than reporting an actual p value or, better still, a confidence interval." (p 599). The committee used the cautionary term "forbearance" in describing its decision against a ban of hypothesis testing in psychology reporting. (p 603) medical journal publishers have recognized the obligation to publish some results that are not statistically significant to combat publication bias, and a journal ( Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis) has been created to publish such results exclusively. Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis website: JASNH homepage. Volume 1 number 1 was published in 2002, and all articles are on psychology-related subjects. Textbooks have added some cautions, and increased coverage of the tools necessary to estimate the size of the sample required to produce significant results. Few major organizations have abandoned use of significance tests although some have discussed doing so. For instance, in 2023, the editors of the Journal of Physiology "strongly recommend the use of estimation methods for those publishing in The Journal" (meaning the magnitude of the effect size (to allow readers to judge whether a finding has practical, physiological, or clinical relevance) and confidence intervals to convey the precision of that estimate), saying "Ultimately, it is the physiological importance of the data that those publishing in The Journal of Physiology should be most concerned with, rather than the statistical significance."
Critics of significance testing have advocated basing inference less on p-values and more on confidence intervals for effect sizes for importance, prediction intervals for confidence, replications and extensions for replicability, meta-analyses for generality :. But none of these suggested alternatives inherently produces a decision. Lehmann said that hypothesis testing theory can be presented in terms of conclusions/decisions, probabilities, or confidence intervals: "The distinction between the ... approaches is largely one of reporting and interpretation."
Bayesian inference is one proposed alternative to significance testing. (Nickerson cited 10 sources suggesting it, including Rozeboom (1960)). For example, Bayesian parameter estimation can provide rich information about the data from which researchers can draw inferences, while using uncertain priors that exert only minimal influence on the results when enough data is available. Psychologist John K. Kruschke has suggested Bayesian estimation as an alternative for the t-test and has also contrasted Bayesian estimation for assessing null values with Bayesian model comparison for hypothesis testing. Two competing models/hypotheses can be compared using Bayes factors. Bayesian methods could be criticized for requiring information that is seldom available in the cases where significance testing is most heavily used. Neither the prior probabilities nor the probability distribution of the test statistic under the alternative hypothesis are often available in the social sciences.
Advocates of a Bayesian approach sometimes claim that the goal of a researcher is most often to objectively assess the probability that a hypothesis is true based on the data they have collected. "...the proper application of statistics to scientific inference is irrevocably committed to extensive consideration of inverse AKA probabilities..." It was acknowledged, with regret, that a priori probability distributions were available "only as a subjective feel, differing from one person to the next" "in the more immediate future, at least". In listing the competing definitions of "objective" Bayesian analysis, "A major goal of statistics (indeed science) is to find a completely coherent objective Bayesian methodology for learning from data." The author expressed the view that this goal "is not attainable". Neither Ronald Fisher's significance testing, nor Neyman–Pearson hypothesis testing can provide this information, and do not claim to. The probability a hypothesis is true can only be derived from use of Bayes' Theorem, which was unsatisfactory to both the Fisher and Neyman–Pearson camps due to the explicit use of subjectivity in the form of the prior probability. Fisher's strategy is to sidestep this with the p-value (an objective index based on the data alone) followed by inductive inference, while Neyman–Pearson devised their approach of inductive behaviour.
Alternatives
A unifying position of critics is that statistics should not lead to an accept-reject conclusion or decision, but to an estimated value with an interval estimate; this data-analysis philosophy is broadly referred to as estimation statistics. Estimation statistics can be accomplished with either frequentist or Bayesian methods.
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